November 23, 2010

... because scary stories are fun

One of the annoying things about reading lefty websites is the way that they constantly bang on about how a double dip recession is inevitable because of the rather feeble cuts that the government is going to make to state spending. But why should the Left get all the fun making up scare stories which almost certainly won't happen? Here is another scary scenario for a possible future, but one that is much more likely than Britain going the way of Ireland because the government cut the level of government spending back to were it was in 2007.

1. The auditors come in and demand that Ireland keeps on cutting the size of government spending, they can do nothing else to get rid of their debts, in exchange for EU loans. The EU will now scrutinise the Irish budgets for as long as Ireland is reliant on EU money.
2. The state cuts, but with debt-deflation now firmly in place, thanks to the Euro, things just keep getting worse domestically.
3. This causes the next wave of defaults sending Ireland even further up shit creek.
4. As the second crisis flares up the Irish government is forced to go to the EU for even more money, trading in even more of their power over Ireland to get it.
5. The money is provided, but with harsh penalty clauses because the German electorate, who are paying for all of this, don't want their money wasted.
6. Of course with the EU now in charge the chances of the money not being wasted are roughly zero. Those with EU connections get wealthy and everybody else gets screwed.
7. The Sinn Fien expands in the south into a small but real political power. However since it is anti-EU everything is done to keep it, and its supporters, marginalised. The fact that it is made up of former terrorists is not the problem, the fact that they are anti-EU is.
8. As the Irish depression continues people start to blame various 'out groups' with, nasty populist measures being proposed to deal with them which strangely never seem to create any problems for them with the ECHR despite being exactly the kind of thing it was supposed to stop. This scape goating has no positive effect what so ever.
9. Along with this there is a dramatic rise in the far left. This is another aspect of the previous point, since all the far left do is scape goat sucessful people.
10. There is significant civil disobedence against the authorities, getting violent as the far left gets involved.

Here we get to the tipping point either things can get slowly better and Ireland return to a new equilibrium as a poor vassal of Brussels or:

11. The far left switch from civil disobedience turns to outright terrorism.
12. The EU sends in its gendarmrie bolstered by units from the EU Rapid Reaction Force under the extensive powers that the Lisbon Treaty has given the EU for internal security. For political reasons the UK sits this one out, the idea of British troops marching through the streets of Dublin has too many historical resonances.
13. That they were not British does not matter and areas of Southern Ireland become like Northern Ireland.
14. The long Second Irish War of Independence begins.


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